Tag Archive for Dow Jones Industrial Average

Sterling Market Commentary for Thursday March 8th, 2012

In looking at the charts from Wednesday’s trading the trend of the market remains weak, however yesterday’s big bounce tends to pull stocks and indices that recently broke below support back above those support levels. What this really ends up doing in my opinion is that it greatly reduces the number of potential trading candidates for the day. It also tends to throw the continuation of any downtrend in doubt.

With the volatility we have seen in the market over the last several years I have adopted my strategy from one of being a purely short term, day trader to one of selling covered puts and calls. This results in my building a portfolio of covered puts and calls over the course of a month that then reverts back to cash on options expiration. During this process I generally try to build a portfolio that is a mixture of long and short positions. I am looking for today to be a day where I can balance out my put positions with a call position that will not get stopped out prior to expiration.

Sterling Market Commentary for Wednesday March 7th, 2012

A Few Thoughts on Wednesday’s Market: In looking at the charts from yesterday’s trading activity it is pretty clear that basically every index I track has broken its upward or sideways trend and looks to starting what should be at least a short term pullback. There only 2 stocks with a more than a million shares in average daily trading volume that closed at a new yearly high yesterday; and the very vast majority of the heavy volume stocks moved lower on the day.

I continue to see support on the Dow Jones Industrial Average coming in at….

Sterling Market Commentary for Tuesday March 6th, 2012

In my review of the charts from yesterday’s trading activity I noticed that the vast majority of the various indices I track appear to be starting to move lower. This is generally a bearish signal for the overall market. The second thing I noticed was the vast majority of the heavy volume stocks appear to be moving lower, another bearish signal for the overall market. It looks to me as if we are starting a market pullback. If that is the case, then I expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average to move lower and test support at 12,719.49 If that level fails to hold support on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, then I see a good possibility that the Dow Industrials will move lower and test …..

Sterling Market Commentary for Monday March 5th, 2012

In looking at the charts from Friday’s market activity I noticed three (3) things that really stood out. The first thing I noticed is that a majority of the sector indices I looked at had negative chart patterns. This is generally a precursor for a broader market pullback. The second thing I noticed was very few of the stocks setting new yearly highs had average daily trading volume above 1 million shares. To me, this indicates that the larger companies are not participating as much in the recent market rally. The third thing I noticed was the majority of the stocks with heavy volume looked to be moving lower. This is generally a bearish trading signal.

Sterling Weekly for the Week of March 5th, 2012 – A Look at Bond Prices and Higher Rates

Regular readers of the Sterling Weekly will recall that I have been voicing my concerns about the Fed’s manipulation of interest rates to abnormally low levels for quite some time. I have expressed my concerns that this is inflationary in nature, and that as a result we could see interest rates rise to levels not seen since the mid to late 1990’s when the 30-Year Bond yielded approximately 7.5%. (Sterling Weekly for September 26th, 2011) I thought it would be a good idea to take a look how an increase in interest rates would affect the price of current government bonds.

As of last Friday March 2nd, the US Government 5-Year Bonds was yielding approximately 0.85%, the 10-Year Bond was yielding approximately 1.99%, and 30-Year Bond was yielding approximately 3.14%. I have said for a very long time that I believe these bond yields are artificially low due to their manipulation by the Federal Reserve. I think that this is causing a bubble in the bond market that could have very disastrous consequence when it finally bursts, as all bubble ultimately do.

I think that it is very realistic to expect that we will see the price of US Government bonds return to their pre-2008 levels at some point in the reasonable future, by this I mean interest rate levels seen…..

Sterling Weekly for February 27th, 2012 – A Look at the Price of Oil

The price of oil reached a short term high of $113.92 per barrel on April 29th, 2011, and then declined to $76.78 on October 4th, 2011. What is very important about this chart is that if the price of oil closed above $113.92 per barrel, then it will have completed a “cup pattern” with a measured move to $151.06 per barrel. I consider cup patterns to be very highly reliable, and very predictable. On Friday the price of wholesale gasoline closed at $3.15 per gallon. This is a ratio of just under 35 to 1 between the price of oil and gasoline. Applying that ratio to $150 per barrel oil and you get an estimated wholesale gasoline of approximately $4.28 per gallon. That would most likely put the price at the pump close to….

Sterling Market Commentary for Friday February 24th, 2012 – A Quick Look at Oil

Also, it should be noted that despite the upward movement of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Transportation Index has been moving lower. For those who believe in the Dow Theory this is a negative signal for the overall market. My thoughts are that the Dow Transports are being pushed lower due to higher oil prices; additionally the Dow Jones Transportation Average is generally considered to be a fairly reliable indicator as transports companies ship goods and services, thus providing a good look at where the economy is going. If this trend continues, then the odds are that the broad market will follow the transports lower, not the other way around. ….

Sterling Weekly for the Week of February 13th, 2012 – 2011 Index Performance Results

I was fairly surprised when I looked at the performance results of the various indices I track. Sterling Investment Services tracks roughly 39 various sector indices. Of these indices, 3 are interest rate indices that track the movement of interest rates, and the other 36 indices are stock based indices that either track the broad market or are designed to track specific market sectors.

The 3 interest rate indices I track obviously did well as the Fed manipulated interest lower, sending bond prices higher in the process. It is tough to get any message from a manipulated market. However, what I do see is a bubble forming that I am very concerned will be far more damaging to the US and world economy when it bursts than the housing bubble was when it burst. Of the 36 stock indices I track, 13 managed to show positive gains for 2011, however it should be noted that

Sterling Market Commentary for Friday February 3rd, 2012

A Few Thoughts Before the Open: One word to describe the recent market, “DULL!” Granted it has been a slow, steady upward trend, and it looks like that trend could continue; or it could reverse course at any point in time. However, from my standpoint it is somewhat tough to find any new entry points on either the long or short side that I feel comfortable with. I will take a more in depth look at the market this weekend and see what I can find…………..

Sterling Market Commentary for Wednesday February 1st, 2012

The overall market finished Tuesday mixed with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finishing slightly lower, while the NASDAQ finished the day slightly higher. There was strength in the Transports, Utilities, Banking, Airlines, Broker/Dealers, High Tech, Oil & Gas, Biotech, and Healthcare indices. There was weakness in the Gold/Silver, Commodities, Cyclicals, Consumer, Retailers, Insurance, and Oil Services indices. Oil was lower by $0.30 to $98.48 per barrel, and Gold was higher by $6.80 to $1,737.80 per ounce. In the grain markets, Wheat was higher by $0.212 to $6.660 per bushel, and Corn was higher by $0.074 to $6.452 per bushel, while Soybeans were higher by $0.36 to $11.990 per bushel.