Our look at the market’s activity on Friday October 26th, 2012 and our market commentary for the upcoming trading day of Monday October 29th, 2012; as well as our thoughts on the NYSE Arca Disk Drive Index ‘DDX’ and its recent closing lows. There is a chart included in today’s market commentary for your review.
In today’s edition of the Sterling Market Commentary I take a look at the results from Thursday’s market, and provide my thoughts on Friday’s market activity. Additionally I have now initiated coverage on the NASDAQ 100 Index ‘NDX’. I have included chart on the NASDAQ 100 Index ‘NDX’ for our readers review.
In today’s edition of the Sterling Market Commentary I discuss yesterday’s market activity, what I see ahead for today’s market; and I take a look at the MS. Consumer Index ‘CMR’ providing my thoughts on where it is going, and what I think the implications are for the U.S. economy. I think you will find the chart on the ‘CMR’ interesting. I also provide support and resistance levels on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average.
A Few Thoughts Wednesday’s Market: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed yesterday at 13,102.53. In doing so, it clearly broke a supporting trendline that started in early March of this year. I have inserted a chart on the Dow Jones Industrial Average below for you to review. I think we are starting a new short to intermediate term downward trend. I believe that there is a very good possibility that we could see the Dow Jones Industrial Average continue to move lower and test its 200 day moving average at 12,908.33 on a closing basis. I should also point out that today is a rather quite day for economic news and unless there is a major earnings miss, then it is reasonable to expect a bounce in the market today. However, initial and continuing jobless claims are due to be released Thursday morning, and we could Thursday’s economic announcements could spark a move either way in the market. My guess is if we see a rise in initial jobless claims, then the market will probably head back lower. (Please see the Chart on the Dow Jones Industrial Average we have included in today’s blog)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 13,345.89 I am looking at upside resistance on the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 13,610.15 on a closing basis. I now see downside support coming in at 13,273.32 and then 13,000.71 on a closing basis. Current Expectations: I think we are starting a new trend lower in the Dow. I am expecting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to continue to move lower and test 13,273.32 on a closing basis…..
A Few Thoughts on Monday’s Market: The overall market is showing considerable weakness, with the high tech sector in an outright bearish trading pattern. A lot of the weakness in the high tech sector can be attributed to a pull back in the shares of Apple, Inc. ‘AAPL’. However it is not just Apple that is causing the weakness in the high tech sector, there is considerable weakness in the WinTel world, those high tech companies that are focused products utilizing either Microsoft or Intel architecture. I think that the stock market is signalling a pullback in the U.S. Economy. I also think that this signal would be a lot louder and clearer if it was not for the Quantitative Easing programs of the Fed and their market manipulation effects. In looking at the charts from Friday’s activity I noticed that the M.S. Consumer Index ‘CMR’ had not yet broken its recent upward trendline. I am keeping an eye on the ‘CMR’. If we have another couple of down days and this index breaks its upward trendline, then I see this as a potential confirmation that the U.S. Economy is headed back into a recession…..
A Look at Thursday’s Market: The overall market moved moderately lower in a relatively broad based move. The big news of the day was Google’s financial publisher, who files its reports with the SEC and the distribution of its press releases, accidentally released its earnings during the filing process. This resulted in the shares of Google ‘GOOG’ being halted from trading, and then opening sharply lower following their reopening for trading. These so called “fat finger” mistakes are unfortunate. They result from human error, and can be corrected by better controls and procedures. However I do not see this as something that the SEC needs to be involved in. This is just part of the market, it is just one of those things that happens. The companies that have their shares publicly traded do not need more regulations that increase the cost and difficulty in complying with the already complicated process of being a public company. …………..
The Dow Jones Industrial Average: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 13,557.00 With yesterday’s trading activity, I am now widening trading range by raising my upside resistance to the closing high set earlier this month. I am now looking at upside resistance on the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 13,610.15 on a closing basis. I now see downside support coming in at and downside support at 13,273.32 and then on a closing basis. Current Expectations: I think we are starting a new trend lower in the Dow. I am expecting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to continue to move lower and test 13,373.32 on a closing basis……..
A Few Thoughts on Wednesday’s Market: In looking at the charts from yesterday’s trading activity I was surprised by the strength of the move higher in a couple of sectors including the Chemicals, High Tech, and Healthcare related indices. The problem I am having today in particular is that I do not have any faith in the market at this point in time. I think that we are currently in a situation where the Fed through its Quantitative Easing programs is actively manipulating the market to artificially high levels. Why do I say this? Because the Fed has stated that the goals of its Quantitative Easing programs is to flood the bond market with liquidity and drive investors into other classes of savings and investments, and along the way raise asset valuations. In other words their stated goal is to manipulate markets higher. I also believe they are creating a bubble in the bond market that when it bursts will make the bursting of the housing bubble look like a party. Through in the political uncertainty and the effects of computerized trading, and I think you have a market that could suddenly without warning sharply reverse itself. David Vitner, the CFO of Goldman Sachs was quoted in this morning’s Wall Street Journal as saying “There is still so much political uncertainty out there that is driving markets. A speech by Politician X or Politician Y drives markets up or down as much as any economic situation.” If nothing else, I guess I am not out there alone in my feelings. ……………
A Look at Monday’s Market: The overall market moved moderately higher in a broad based move that saw essential sector index I track move higher as well. The move higher was attributed to stronger than expected retail sales. Welcome to the Age of Computers, when a single number can move markets world wide. As someone who has been actively involved in the markets for a long time, this seems more than a little unnatural to me. It brings back the old adage of “Live by the sword, die by the sword.” While this may seem good on the way up, it can reverse and turn ugly just as quickly, if not faster. in the commodities markets, Oil was lower by $0.01 to $91.85 per barrel, and Gold was lower by $22.10 to $1,737.60 per ounce. In the grain markets, Wheat was lower by $0.084 to $8.482 per bushel, and Corn was lower by $0.154 to $7.372 per bushel, while Soybeans were lower by $0.30 to $14.924 per bushel. ……..
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