Tag Archive for forward looking indicators

Sterling Market Commentary for Thursday October 11th, 2012

A Few Thoughts on Thursday’s Market: In looking at the charts from yesterday’s trading activity, I noticed continued weakness in the vast majority of the indices I track. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Philly Semiconductor Index ‘SOX’, the S&P 100 ‘OEX’, S&P 500 ‘SPX’, the S&P Retail Index ‘RLX’, the M.S. Cyclicals ‘CYC’, and Amex Biotech ‘BTK’ indices all either hit or move lower through their 40 day moving averages. Again, this is generally considered a negative trading signal for the market. While the computers may initially move the market higher this morning due to the initial jobless claims numbers, I do not think they are going to overcome a slowing economy. Let us not forget that initial jobless claims, and the unemployment rate are lagging indicators. This means that they are providing us with a picture of what has already happened. They are not forward looking looking indicators which will provide you with an indication of what may be happening now or in the future. The initial jobless claims and the unemployment numbers are not providing us with a picture of an improving economy, they are confirming that the economy improved in the past. The forward looking indicators are showing a slowing economy. Economic conditions around the world are contracting, the world economy is slowing, and there is a good chance the U.S. economy will drop back into a recession in the next 6 months. This is not a recipe for a rising market with interest rates already at record levels.