Sterling Market Commentary for Tuesday October 2nd, 2012
A Look at Monday’s Market: The overall market was mixed on Monday with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finishing the day moderately higher while the NASDAQ finished the day slightly lower. Among the indices I track there was strength in the Airlines, Natural Gas, Gold/Silver, Biotech, Insurance, Healthcare related, Commodities, Transports, Retailers, and Financials. There was weakness in the Telecoms, High Tech, and Utilities. In the commodities markets, Oil was higher by $0.29 to $92.48 per barrel, and Gold was higher by $9.40 to $1,780.50 per ounce. In the Grain markets, Wheat was lower by $0.182 to $8.842 per bushel, while Corn was higher by $0.004 to $7.566 per bushel, and Soybeans were lower by a whopping $0.406 to $15.602 per bushel.
A Few Thoughts on Tuesday’s Market: In reviewing the charts from yesterday’s trading activity, I did not see any indications of real strength in the market. The charts with the clear patterns appear to be breaking to the downside. To me this is a sign of continuing weakness; and it creates a strong belief that if it were not for the market manipulations of the Fed, and if it were not for the Fed manipulating the market it would be a lot lower.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Friday at 13,437.13. I continue to see upside resistance on the Dow at 13,558.92. With Friday’s close of 13,437.13 the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke our support level of 13,345. I now see downside support coming in at 13,279.32 Current Expectations: I am expecting the Dow to continue to move lower and test 13,279.32 on a closing basis.
Dow Jones Transportation Average: The Dow Jones Transportation Average closed Monday at 4,899.73. I continue to see upside resistance on the the Dow Transportation Average at 4,951.07 and downside support at 4,873.76 and then at 4,795.28 This is obviously a very narrow trading range. Current Expectations: The Dow Transports appear to be in a downward trend. I am expecting Dow Transports to continue to move lower and test 4,873.76 on a closing basis.
The Bottom Line: I just do not see any strength to the market, and continue to have concerns about it moving lower.
| Sterling Calendars for the Week of October 1st, 2012 |
| Economic Calendar |
| Date | Est. Time |
Release | For | Consensus | Prior |
| 10/01 | 10:00am | ISM Index | Sep. | 49.7 | 49.6 |
| 10/01 | 10:00am | Construction Spending | Aug. | 0..4% | (0.9%) |
| 10/02 | 2:00pm | Auto Sales | Sep. | N/A | 5.3 M |
| 10/02 | 2:00pm | Truck Sales | Sep. | N/A | 6.3 M |
| 10/03 | 7:00am | MBA Mortgage Index | 09/29 | N/A | 2.8% |
| 10/03 | 8:15am | ADP Employment Change | Sep. | 133K | 201K |
| 10/03 | 10:00am | ISM Services | Sep. | 53.0 | 53.7 |
| 10/03 | 10:30am | Crude Inventories | 09/29 | N/A | (2.466M) |
| 10/03 | 2:00pm | FOMC Minutes | 9/12 | ||
| 10/04 | 7:30am | Challenger Job Cuts | Sep. | N/A | (36.9%) |
| 10/04 | 8:30am | Initial Jobless Claims | 09/29 | 365K | 359K |
| 10/04 | 8:30am | Continuing Jobless Claims | 09/22 | 3,273K | 3,271K |
| 10/04 | 10:00am | Factory Orders | Aug. | (6.0%) | 2.8% |
| 10/05 | 8:30am | Nonfarm Payrolls | Sep. | 120K | 96K |
| 10/05 | 8:30am | Nonfarm Private Payrolls | Sep. | 130K | 103K |
| 10/05 | 8:30am | Unemployment Rate | Sep. | 8.1% | 8.1% |
| 10/05 | 8:30am | Hourly Earnings | Sep. | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 10/05 | 8:30am | Average Workweek | Sep. | 34.4 | 34.4 |
| 10/05 | 3:00pm | Consumer Credit | Aug. | $5.0B | ($3.3B) |