Market Commentary, Uncategorized

Sterling Market Commentary for Friday February 3rd, 2012

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A Few Thoughts on Thursday’s Market: The overall stock market finished Thursday mixed with the Dow Jones Industrial Average finishing slightly lower while the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ finished the day slight higher.  Oil was lower by $1.25 to $96.36 per barrel, and Gold was higher by $9.80 to $1,759.30 per ounce. In the grain markets,  Wheat was lower by $0.114 to $6.626 per bushel, while Corn was higher by $0.010 to $6.430 per bushel, and Soybeans were higher by $0.016 to $12.170 per bushel.

A Few Thoughts Before the Open:  One word to describe the recent market, “DULL!”  Granted it has been a slow, steady upward trend, and it looks like that trend could continue; or it could reverse course at any point in time.  However, from my standpoint it is somewhat tough to find any new entry points on either the long or short side that I feel comfortable with.  I will take a more in depth look at the market this weekend and see what I can find.

The Bottom Line:  Never short a dull market; and the longer a trend is in place the greater the chances of it breaking.

Market Commentary

Sterling Market Commentary for Thursday February 2nd, 2012

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A Look at Wednesday’s Market:  The overall market moved moderately higher on Wednesday in a broad based move that saw almost every sector indices I track move higher on the day.  The strongest sectors on the day were the High Tech, Biotech, Broker/Dealers, Airlines, Banking, Cyclicals. Insurance and Chemicals.  Not a single stock index I track moved lower on the day.  Oil was lower by $0.87 to $97.61 per barrel, and Gold was higher by $9.30 to $1,747.10 per ounce.  In the grain market, Wheat was higher by $0.0882 to $6.742 per bushel, and Corn was higher by $0.030 to $6.420 per bushel, and Soybeans were higher by $0.162 to $12.152 per bushel.

A Few Thoughts Looking to Thursday’s Market:  In looking at the charts from Wednesday’s market I found nothing exciting or really worth mentioning.  Granted the overall trend of the market is still to the upside,  but considering that it is earning’s seanson I would expect the market to be performing better.

The Bottom Line:  Never short a dull market, and remember the longer a trend has been in place the more likely it is to fail.

Market Commentary

Sterling Market Commentary for Wednesday February 1st, 2012

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A Look at Tuesday’s Market:  The overall market finished Tuesday mixed with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finishing slightly lower, while the NASDAQ finished the day slightly higher.  There was strength in the Transports, Utilities, Banking, Airlines,  Broker/Dealers, High Tech, Oil & Gas, Biotech, and Healthcare indices.  There was weakness in the Gold/Silver, Commodities, Cyclicals, Consumer, Retailers, Insurance, and Oil Services indices. Oil was lower by $0.30 to $98.48 per barrel, and Gold was higher by $6.80 to $1,737.80 per ounce.  In the grain markets, Wheat was higher by $0.212 to $6.660 per bushel, and Corn was higher by $0.074 to $6.452 per bushel, while Soybeans were higher by $0.36 to $11.990 per bushel.

A Few Thoughts Looking Towards Wednesday Market:  In looking at the charts from Tuesday’s tradingwith the exception of the Airline index and a pair of Technology indices the rest of the market looks like it may be starting to pull back.  I do not have a confirmation of this yet in the charts, but I expect that I will in the next couple of days.  Until then I would be a little cautious about adding too many new long positions.  For what it is worth,  my gut tells me we are due for a pullback.

Market Commentary

Sterling Market Commentary for Tuesday January 31st, 2012

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A Look at Monday’s Market:  The overall market finished yesterday slightly lower in a relatively broad based move.  Oil was lower by $0.78 to $98.78 per barrel, and Gold was lower by $1.20 to $1,731.10 per ounce. In the grain market Wheat was lower by $0.024 to $6.446 per bushel, and Corn was lower by $0.10 to $6.316 per bushel, while Soybeans were lower bvy $0.336 to $11.852 per bushel.  I follow the headlines coming out of Europe, and I am surprised the market is anywhere near these levels.  It looks like the write-down on the Greek debt may be close to 70%; and it looks like Spain and Portugal’s interest rates are pushing the 20% range.  Instead of getting better, I think things are getting worse in Europe.

A Look Ahead for Tuesday’s Market:  Early futures are once again higher as the politicians in Europe talk about solving problems without providing any real solution.  People really need to be paying attention to the substance of these stories and not just the headlines.  In looking at the charts from yesterday’s trading activity, I noticed that with the exception of the high tech indices the rest of the various indices I track appear to be looking a little toppy.  In other words,  I think  there is a chance that we could see the market pull back in the next few trading days.

The Bottom Line:  The devil is in the details, so do not believe everything you hear coming out of Europe.  Also, I am a little cautious concerning the market’s ability to move higher from these levels.

Market Commentary

Sterling Market Commentary for Friday January 27th, 2012

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A Look at Thursday’s Market Activity:  The overall market was slightly lower on Thursday despite an early move higher than faded when weak housing numbers were released.  Oil was higher by $0.30 to $99.70 per barrel, and Gold was higher by $26.60 to $1,726.70 per ounce.  Wheat was higher by $0.122 to $6.534 per bushel, and Corn was unchanged at $6.344 per bushel, while Soybeans were higher by $0.092 at $12.226 per bushel.

A Few Thoughts on Friday’s Market:  The overall market is rather dull right now; something I find rather interesting considering the Fed’s recent announcement of prolonged ultra-low interest rates and what I consider to be rather good corporate earnings announcements.  I take this to be a sign that investors are not really to enthused about the prospects for the world economy for 2012.  While it is tempting to call for a market pullback,  there is an old saying about never short a dull market.  While my 1st Rule of Trends is that a trend remains in place until it is broken; my 2nd Rule of Trends is that the longer a  trend is in place, the greater the chance it will be broken.

The current upward movement in the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been going on for about 6 weeks.  My “guess” this morning is that it is not going to continue for much longer without some form of a pullback.  I am going to take a good look at the charts over the weekend and see if I can figure out when we might see that happen.

The Bottom Line: GDP is out shortly. This might be interesting.  Enjoy the weekend.

Market Commentary

Sterling Market Commentary for Thursday January 26th, 2012

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A Look at Wednesday’ Market:  The overall market was moderately higher in a broad based move that saw the majority of the sector indices I track move higher on the day.  The strongest sectors were the Gold/Silver, Biotech, Airlines, Natural Gas, Commodities, Oil Services, High Tech, Utilities, Healthcare, and Cyclicals.  There was weakness in the Broker/Dealers, and Banking Indices.

A Few Thoughts Before Thursday’s Open:  The Dow Jone Industrial Average closed Wednesday at 12,758.85  and in the process it broke above short term upside resistance.  I see the next upside resistance target on the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 12,810.54  I see the Dow continuing to move higher and test this level on a closing basis.  The technology indices appear to be breaking out to the upside, primarily I attribute this to the strong performance of Apple, Inc.

I will admit I am just not enthused about much of anything this morning.  I am deeply disappointed by the negative campaigning by the Republican candidates,  I think Obama’s election year politics are going to be deeply destructive, and the Bernanke’s Fed is creating a bond bubble and in the process enabling disastrous policies that could make the 2008 financial crisis look like a warmup event.  Additionally I do not see the European financial crisis as really being solved, or anything close to it.   I guess I am just in one those moods.

The Bottom Line:  The market will probably go higher.

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