For the last couple of weeks I have been commenting
in the Sterling
Prime Stock Letter about the apparent narrow trading range
the overall market has fallen into. Not only does this make
it difficult to identify new trends in individual stocks for
trading opportunities, but it causes increased volatility combined
with smaller moves in what you may be attempting to trade. What
this results in is smaller moves in the expected direction,
the need to be willing to take profits sooner, and re-emphasizes
the need to correctly use "stops" to protect your
positions. One of the key things to maintaining profitability
in trading is to protect your profits and limit your losses.
Over the years I have developed 11 "Rules
for Trading." I am currently in the process of writing
a series of articles for Stock Upticks covering these 11 Rules
for Trading. From time to time as I have felt there were relevant
reasons to do with the current market activity I have discussed
a couple of them in the Sterling Weekly. Now is a very good
time to discuss the Third Rule Rule for Trading,
"Move Your Stops Up (or Lower for Short Sales) to Lock
in a Profit as Soon as Possible"
While the 1st Rule of Trading,
"Never let a Profit Turn into a Loss!", was
designed to provide guidance and assistance with trading a security
near its cost basis. The 3rd Rule of Trading,
"Move Your Stops Up (or Lower for Short Sales) to Lock
in a Profit as Soon as Possible", is designed to provide
guidance when a stock has moved more than a minor amount above
its cost basis. One of the most important parts of being a successful
trader or investor is to avoid taking unnecessary losses that
erode your profitable trades. The 3rd Rule has 2 parts, the
first is to set your initial Stop a minimum of $0.25/share above
your cost basis. This level above the cost basis was chosen
to provide a level of protection from the volatility or rapid
movement of a stock price. With a $0.25/share margin, if the
stop is triggered in a rapidly moving market, the execution
price should still produce a profitable trade.
The second part of the 3rd Rule, is to periodically
move your stops higher. The theory behind the second part of
the 3rd Rule is simple enough; as a stock moves higher the chart
will show levels of support and resistance that can be used
to adjust your stops to protect profits. This is useful for
both short and long term trading. It isn't hard to see how following
this rule would have benefited the shareholders of Worldcom,
Enron, and a whole bunch of other companies that have fallen
from spectacular highs to horrific lows.
Economic Calendar
for the week of August 12th |
DATE |
Est. Time |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com |
Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
Aug 12 |
2:15pm |
FOMC Meeting |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug 13 |
8:30am |
Business
Inv. |
Jun |
|
0.0% |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
Aug 13 |
8:30am |
Retail
Sales |
Jul |
|
1.3% |
0.8% |
0.5% |
|
Aug 13 |
8:30am |
Retail
Sales ex. Auto |
Jul |
|
0.3% |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
Aug 13 |
8:30am |
Export
Prices ex Ag |
Jul |
|
N/a |
N/a |
-0.1% |
|
Aug 13 |
8:30am |
Import
Prices ex. Oil |
Jul |
|
N/a |
N/a |
0.5% |
|
Aug 14 |
8:30am |
Trade
Balance |
Jun |
|
($42.0) Bill. |
($41.5) Bill. |
($41.8) B |
|
Aug 14 |
8:30am |
PPI |
Jul |
|
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
Aug 14 |
8:30am |
Core PPI |
Jul |
|
0.1% |
0.0% |
-0.1% |
|
Aug 14 |
8:30am |
Initial
Claims |
8/09 |
|
385K |
395k |
390k |
|
Aug 14 |
2:00pm |
FOMC Minutes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug 15 |
8:00am |
Empire State Index |
Aug |
|
23.0 |
20.5 |
22.6 |
|
Aug 15 |
8:30am |
CPI |
Jul |
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
Aug 15 |
8:30am |
Core CPI |
Jul |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
Aug 15 |
9:15am |
Industrial
Prod. |
Jul |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
Aug 15 |
9:15am |
Capacity
Util. |
Jul |
|
74.5% |
74.4% |
74.3% |
|
Aug 15 |
9:45am |
Mich. Sent. Prel. |
Aug. |
|
92.0 |
91.0 |
90.9 |
|
Prime Update:
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Highlights from
Recent editions of the Prime Stock Newsletter |
Recommendation |
Date |
Entry Point |
Recent Close or Exit Price |
Profit |
Note |
Short sale of Sandisk 'SNDK' |
Aug 7th |
$51.81 |
$47.90 / Friday's Close |
$3.90 |
Should move lower and test our next target of $43.05 |
Short Sale of "IACI' |
Aug 6th |
$36.65 |
$34.71 w/ Friday's Close |
$1.94 |
Should move lower and test our target of $29.95 |
Short Sale of Goldman 'GS' |
Aug 5th |
$84.85 |
$82.90 covered on the 5th |
$1.95 |
not bad for 1 day |
The Dow Jones Industrial
Average:
Today's Opinion: Closed @ 9,217.35
Current Expectations: Called higher with the close on
May 27th with the close of 8,781.35 The Dow Jones Industrial
Average 'INDU' should move higher and test 9,323.02 on a closing
basis. The Dow Jones Industrial has been moving in a narrow
trading range between 9,323.02 and 8,985.44 with a slight
upward bias since the Dow reached its recent high of 9,323.02
on June 17th. While it is not easy to predict how long this
trading range will last, if past history is any reliable indication,
then we may see this market continue for another 4-8 weeks.
My estimate is that we'll be in this trading range until shortly
after Labor Day.
The S&P 500:
Today's Opinion: Closed @ 980.59
Current Expections: Called higher with a Buy Signal on the
close of trading on August 8th @ 977.59 . The S&P 500 should
move high and test 998.68 and then 1,007.84 On another note,
since the Aug.
5th edition, on Tuesday Aug 6th, the S&P moved through
our lower target of 974.50 with a close of 965.46
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,23.14
Current Expectations: Called higher on August 9th
with a close of 1,223.14. The NDX should move higher and test
1,267.38 and then 1,298.37on a closing basis.
|