The
overall market finished yesterday moderately higher. It is important
when trading to remember to protect your profits and cut your
losses at realistic levels. Last week in the prime stock newsletter
I recommended Home Depot at $27.37/share. Yesterday it closed
at $27.91/share, leaving us with a profit to date of $0.54/share.
Obviously I want to let my winners run, but I would like to
protect my profit. The trick is to set a "stop" that
protects my profit, but doesn't get triggered too early causing
us to loose out on further upside. I believe that in this case
the "stop" for Home Depot should be set $0.25/share
above our cost. Therefore I am recommending setting the stop
on Home Depot 'HD' at $27.62/share.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Monday
at 8,471.61 up 165.26 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
is in a very precarious position. There is an obvious post-war
rally and a change in sentiment due to the victory in Iraq.
However there are still long issues facing the economy, not
to mention the potential for major news from North Korea. Our
technical indicators indicate that the Dow has reached an overbought
condition, and it appears to be up against a downward trend
line that has created resistance against breaking through the
8,500 level. Yet, it appears that we have an upward trend at
work to that appears to have been in place since late March.
I've seen this occur before. It creates in "technical analysis"
what is referred to a triangle pattern. What it means to you
and I, is that within a few days one of these trend lines will
break, and the market will either move sharply higher or back
lower. There isn't a sure way to tell. Since a trend remains
in place until it is broken, the current upward trend remains.
The Bottom Line: The overall market should
move higher.
Today's Opinion: Closed @ 8,471.61
Current Expectations: Called Higher on April 14th, with
the close @ 8,351.10 The Index should move higher and test 8,521.97.
If the Dow closes above 8,521.97 then it should move higher
and test 8,538.24 | |
The S&P 500 closed Monday at 914.84 up
16.03 points. While I was happy to see the S&P 500 move
back higher yesterday, the light volume is a point of concern.
The chart of the S&P 500 continues to look better than the
chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but overall I am
concerned about the light volume today, and the Dow leads the
S&P 500, not the other way around. A note of caution, but
the S&P 500 looks higher.
Today's Opinion: Closed @ 914.84
Current Expections: Called higher with the close of 885.23
on April 14th. The market should continue to move higher and
test 923.76 and then 931.66 on a closing basis.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
The NASDAQ 100 Index closed Monday @ 1,107.13
up 23.94 points. The trend of the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) continues
to be to the upside. The NDX also suffered from light volume
today. It appears the NDX will continue to move higher and test
1,127.06, it's closing high set on November 25th of last year.
If the NDX closes above that level then it will have completed
a small cup pattern with a measured move to 1,302.22
Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,083.56
Current Expectations: Called Higher with the close
on April 14th @ 1,048.31. The NDX should move higher and test
1,127.06 and then 1,302.22 on a closing basis.
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