Sterling Weekly for the Week of October 1st, 2012 – 3rd Quarter Performance Report

3rd Quarter Index Performance Report

Since the previous edition of the Sterling Weekly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 237.58 points or approximately 1.8% to close at 13,437.13 It has been a busy 6 months since I last published the Sterling Weekly,  I am very happy to announce that during the last 6 months, my wife and I saw the birth of our 1st child, a very healthy baby boy that we are very excited to have in our lives.  Over the course of that period of time the market has moved slightly higher.  However the continued bond buying and quantitative easing policies of the Fed continues to cause me a great deal of concern;  specifically that the Fed is creating a financial bubble unlike the world has ever seen before.  I have concerns that when this bubble finally bursts there will be negative consequences that are devastating for the world economy.

We saw the end of the 3rd quarter last week.  As usual, I like to take a look at the performance of the various sector indices I track and see what the market is telling us.  I usually find these results somewhat interesting.  I have published the results below for your review as well.

Sterling Investment Services 2012 3rd Qtr.  Index Performance Report

  Ticker  Closing Level 3rd Quarter
Index Name  Symbol 28-Sep-12 28-Jun-12 Points Percent
1 Phlx. Gold/Silver Index XAU 191 157.54 33.46 21.24%
2 Amex Gold Bugs HUI 513.81 427.77 86.04 20.11%
3 Amex Gold Miners  GDM 1479.6 1,237.18 242.42 19.59%
4 North Am. Telecom Index XTC 1078.65 918.44 160.21 17.44%
5 Phlx. Oil Services Sector OSX 224.09 201.36 22.73 11.29%
6 CBOE Technology Index TXX 1069.85 987.33 82.52 8.36%
7 KBW Banking Index BKX 49.58 45.79 3.79 8.28%
8 Amex Oil & Gas XOI 1258.11 1,165.53 92.58 7.94%
9 Amex MS Commodities CRX 847.25 785.93 61.32 7.80%
10 S&P Healthcare Index  HCX 465.29 433.61 31.68 7.31%
11 Computer Tech. Index XCI 1175.3 1,096.22 79.08 7.21%
12 Natural Gas Index  XNG 669.794 624.78 45.01 7.20%
13 NASDAQ 100 Index  NDX 2799.19 2,615.72 183.47 7.01%
14 Amex Interactive IIX 321.24 300.99 20.25 6.73%
15 S&P Retail Index  RLX 655.46 614.29 41.17 6.70%
16 S&P Insurance Index  IUX 193.81 181.91 11.90 6.54%
17 S&P 100 Index  OEX 663.8 623.82 39.98 6.41%
18 Amex Pharmaceuticals DRG 369.94 348.08 21.86 6.28%
19 MS. High Tech. Index MSH 684.4 644.08 40.32 6.26%
20 MS. Healthcare Providers RXP 2151.633 2,026.60 125.03 6.17%
21 Amex Biotech Index BTK 1558.24 1,469.21 89.03 6.06%
22 S&P Banking Index  BIX 163.45 154.33 9.12 5.91%
23 S&P 500 Index  SPX 1440.67 1,362.16 78.51 5.76%
24 Russell 1000 Index  RUI 793.74 750.61 43.13 5.75%
25 MS Cyclical Index  CYC 968.695 918.96 49.74 5.41%
26 MS Consumer Index CMR 835.843 798.24 37.60 4.71%
27 Dow Jones Industrial Avg. DJ-30 13437.13 12,880.09 557.04 4.32%
28 Amex Disk Drive  DDX 109.8 105.42 4.38 4.15%
29 S&P Chemicals Index  CEX 346.2 338.39 7.81 2.31%
30 Phlx. Semiconductor Index SOX 382.27 385.46 (3.19) -0.83%
31 Dow Jones Utilities Index DJ-15 475.75 481.36 (5.61) -1.17%
32 Amex Networking  NWX 207.34 211.70 (4.36) -2.06%
33 Phlx. Utility Sector UTY 481.71 493.01 (11.30) -2.29%
34 Amex Airlines Index XAL 37.65 39.05 (1.40) -3.59%
35 Amex Sec. Broker/Dealer XBD 82.59 87.82 (5.23) -5.96%
36 Dow Jones Transportation DJ-20 4892.62 5,209.18 (316.56) -6.08%
———- ———-
Average 54.26 6.06%
Sterling Investment Services 2012 3rd Qtr. Interest Rate Index Performance Report
Ticker Closing Level 3rd Quarter
Index Name Symbol 28-Sep-12 28-Jun-12 Points Percent
CBOE 10 Yr. Treasury Yield TNX 16.37 16.59 (0.22) -1.33%
CBOE 30 Yr. Treasury Yield TYX 28.34 27.63 0.71 2.57%
CBOE 5 Yr. Treasury Yield FVX 6.3 7.29 (0.99) -13.58%

In looking at the results from the 3rd quarter, several items stood out.  The 1st being that the average index was higher by 6.06% for the quarter.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both underperformed the average index, with results of 4.32% and 5.76% returns respectively.  The NASDAQ 100 posted a gain of 7.01%, outperforming the average index.  The 2nd thing I noticed was the the 6 of the top 9 performing indices were commodities related indices.  They were the Philly Gold/Silver, Amex Gold Bugs, Amex Gold Miners,  Philly Oil Services, Amex Oil & Gas, and the Amex MS Commodities.  The KBW Banking Index ‘BKX’ also made the top 9 indices.  What I see all these indices having in common is that they are subject to manipulation higher by the Fed’s Quantitative Easing policies.  Additionally the 1st six I mentioned all seem to be somewhat an indicator of future inflation being a problem.

The 3rd thing I noticed was that 5 of the 6 worst performing sectors were either related to transportation, utilities, or the brokerage industries.   The utilities and brokerage industries are subject to expansive new regulations through either Dodd-Frank or the EPA; while I consider the Dow Transportation indices to be the canary in the coal mine for the US economy.  The poor performance of these indices indicates a slowing economy in my book.

I also wanted to take a look at the year to date results.  Which I have posted below for your review.

Sterling Investment’s 2012 3rd Qtr. – Year to Date Stock Index Performance Report
Ticker Closing Level Year to Date
Index Name Symbol 28-Sep-12 30-Dec-11 Points Percent
Amex Biotech Index BTK 1558.24 1,091.42 466.82 42.77%
KBW Banking Index BKX 49.58 39.38 10.20 25.90%
CBOE Technology Index TXX 1069.85 851.59 218.26 25.63%
S&P Retail Index RLX 655.46 523.20 132.26 25.28%
S&P Banking Index BIX 163.45 130.52 32.93 25.23%
MS. Healthcare Providers RXP 2151.633 1,733.89 417.74 24.09%
NASDAQ 100 Index NDX 2799.19 2,277.83 521.36 22.89%
North Am. Telecom Index XTC 1078.65 881.99 196.66 22.30%
Computer Tech. Index XCI 1175.3 973.96 201.34 20.67%
S&P 100 Index OEX 663.8 570.79 93.01 16.29%
MS. High Tech. Index MSH 684.4 588.88 95.52 16.22%
Amex Airlines Index XAL 37.65 32.44 5.21 16.06%
S&P Chemicals Index CEX 346.2 298.73 47.47 15.89%
S&P Healthcare Index HCX 465.29 401.90 63.39 15.77%
S&P 500 Index SPX 1440.67 1,257.60 183.07 14.56%
Russell 1000 Index RUI 793.74 693.36 100.38 14.48%
Amex Interactive IIX 321.24 281.74 39.50 14.02%
S&P Insurance Index IUX 193.81 170.17 23.64 13.89%
Amex Pharmaceuticals DRG 369.94 332.94 37.00 11.11%
MS Cyclical Index CYC 968.695 874.14 94.56 10.82%
MS Consumer Index CMR 835.843 759.13 76.71 10.11%
Dow Jones Industrial Avg. DJ-30 13437.13 12,217.56 1,219.57 9.98%
Amex Disk Drive DDX 109.8 101.79 8.01 7.87%
Phlx. Gold/Silver Index XAU 191 180.64 10.36 5.74%
Natural Gas Index XNG 669.794 636.15 33.64 5.29%
Phlx. Semiconductor Index SOX 382.27 364.44 17.83 4.89%
Phlx. Oil Services Sector OSX 224.09 216.28 7.81 3.61%
Amex Gold Miners GDM 1479.6 1,428.98 50.62 3.54%
Amex Gold Bugs HUI 513.81 498.73 15.08 3.02%
Dow Jones Utilities Index DJ-15 475.75 464.68 11.07 2.38%
Amex Oil & Gas XOI 1258.11 1,229.10 29.01 2.36%
Amex MS Commodities CRX 847.25 844.94 2.31 0.27%
Phlx. Utility Sector UTY 481.71 481.45 0.26 0.05%
Amex Sec. Broker/Dealer XBD 82.59 83.27 (0.68) -0.82%
Dow Jones Transportation DJ-20 4892.62 5,019.69 (127.07) -2.53%
Amex Networking NWX 207.34 215.15 (7.81) -3.63%
———- ———-
Average 120.20 12.39%
Sterling Investment’s 2012 3rd Qtr – Year to Date Interest Rate Performance Report
Ticker Closing Level Year to Date
Index Name Symbol 28-Sep-12 28-Jun-12 Points Percent
CBOE 10 Yr. Treasury Yield TNX 16.37 18.71 (2.34) -12.51%
CBOE 30 Yr. Treasury Yield TYX 28.34 28.29 0.05 0.18%
CBOE 5 Yr. Treasury Yield FVX 6.3 8.30 (2.00) -24.10%

I do not see quite as a clear of a message in the year to date results.  The fact that the Amex Biotech Index ‘BTK’ is the top performing index is not surprising to me.  For quite some time now it has been one of the few industries where new technology was being developed; and I have long said that bull markets are the result of either government regulation or new technologies.  The heavy re-regulation of the American economy by the Obama administration is definitely weighing on parts of the market.  I have suspected that we saw increased capital spending earlier in the year as companies moved to take advantage of tax breaks and other incentives that will expire at the end of this year; and that is why the tech sector has been a more solid performer year to date.

Again, I continue to have concern about the poor performance year to date by the transportation sectors.  I do believe that there is merit to the Dow Theory, and I see a slowing economy that I think will catch people unprepared.

 

Sterling Calendars for the Week of October 1st, 2012
Economic Calendar
Date Est.
Time
Release For Consensus Prior
10/01 10:00am ISM Index Sep. 49.7 49.6
10/01 10:00am Construction Spending Aug. 0..4% (0.9%)
10/02 2:00pm Auto Sales Sep. N/A 5.3 M
10/02 2:00pm Truck Sales Sep. N/A 6.3 M
10/03 7:00am MBA Mortgage Index 09/29 N/A 2.8%
10/03 8:15am ADP Employment Change Sep. 133K 201K
10/03 10:00am ISM Services Sep. 53.0 53.7
10/03 10:30am Crude Inventories 09/29 N/A (2.466M)
10/03 2:00pm FOMC Minutes 9/12
10/04 7:30am Challenger Job Cuts Sep. N/A (36.9%)
10/04 8:30am Initial Jobless Claims 09/29 365K 359K
10/04 8:30am Continuing Jobless Claims 09/22 3,273K 3,271K
10/04 10:00am Factory Orders Aug. (6.0%) 2.8%
10/05 8:30am Nonfarm Payrolls Sep. 120K 96K
10/05 8:30am Nonfarm Private Payrolls Sep. 130K 103K
10/05 8:30am Unemployment Rate Sep. 8.1% 8.1%
10/05 8:30am Hourly Earnings Sep. 0.2% 0.1%
10/05 8:30am Average Workweek Sep. 34.4 34.4
10/05 3:00pm Consumer Credit Aug. $5.0B ($3.3B)

 

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