Professional Trader's Newsletter for January 11th, 1999

A few notes from Friday after the close of trading.  Amazon.com 'AMZN' was bid @ $168/share on Instinet,  and after the close of trading Robertson Stephens made positive comments regarding the earnings of Siebel Systems 'SEBL'.

Index Options: OEX January 635 Calls,  Symbol 'OEYAG'

BUY:  Conagra, Inc. 'CAG' @ $34.25/share.  (Stops @ $32.625,  Price Targets $35.75 & $42.25)  YH: $34.375  YL: $22.56  Options Pick:  January 30 Calls,  Symbol 'CAGAG' @ $4.375/contract.  This company is a major producer of food based consumer products.  It is a component of the M.S. Consumer Index 'CMR',  and the M.S. Commodities Index 'CAG'.  I have rated both of these indices as moving higher from their current levels.  The shares of 'CAG' set a new closing high on Friday on heavier than normal trading volume.  In the process they completed a series of cup patterns with measured moves to our stated price targets. 

BUY:  Renal Care Group, Inc. 'RCGI' @ $30.56/share.  (Stops @ $29.125,  Price Targets $34.31 & $42.625)  YH: $30.875  YL: $18.00  Options Pick:  January 25 Calls,  Symbol 'NUQAE' @ $5.75/contract.  This company treats patients with Kidney disease.  The shares of 'RCGI' gapped higher on the open of trading on Friday.  In the process they closed above a key support level on heavier than normal trading volume.  They should continue to move higher and test $34.31/share,  the point from which they gapped lower in late August of this year.  If they close above that level then they should continue to move higher and test $42.625/share,  the point from which they gapped lower in late July of this year.  Last week Pacific Growth Equities initiated research coverage of 'RCGI' with a "Strong Buy" rating. 

BUY:  Sawtek, Inc. 'SAWS' @ $22.125/share.  (Stops @ $19.875,  Price Targets $23.31 & $31.375)  YH: $32.50  YL: $10.25  Options Pick:  January 20 Calls,  Symbol 'QWSAD' @ $2.375/contract.  This company produces equipment for wireless communications equipment.  The shares of 'SAWS' moved sharply higher on heavier than normal trading volume on Friday.  They should continue to move higher and test $23.31/share,  a point of upside resistance established in early December of this year.  If they close above that level then they should continue to move higher and test $31.375/share,  a point of upside resistance established in late April of this year. 

BUY:  Smith Micro Software 'SMSI' @ $2.75/contract.  (Stops @ $1.625,  Price Targets $4.375 & $5.25)  YH: $5.56  YL: $1.25  Options Pick:  None Available.  This company produces software for the transmission of faxes, video and data.  The shares of 'SMSI' moved sharply higher on heavier than normal trading volume.  The shares should continue to move higher and test $4.375/share,  a point of upside resistance established in mid March of this year.  If they close above that level then they should continues to move higher and test $5.25/share,  a former point of downside support established in January of 1996.  'SMSI' recently announced it had renewed its agreement to provide software with Three Coms products. 

S&P 100, 'OEX': closed @ 636.02 Last Signal:  Called Higher on 12-16 @ 576.12 Current Expectation:  Higher.  The index should test 691.49 on a closing basis.

S&P 500, 'SPX': closed @ 1275.09    Last Signal: Called Higher on 12-16 @ 1,162.83  Current Expectation: Higher.  The index should test 1,416.22 on a closing basis.

NASDAQ 100, 'NDX':   Closed @ 1,836.01 Last Signal:  Called Higher on 10-13 @ 1,243.40   Current Expectations:  Higher.  This index has exceeded our upside targets.

NASDAQ.CMP. 'COMPQ':  closed @ 2,344.41 Last Signal:  Called Higher on 10-12 @ 1,492.49 Current Expectation:  Higher  The index should test 2,609.38 on a closing basis.

DOW JONES, 'INDU':  closed @ 9,643.32 Last Signal: Called Higher on 12-22 @ 8,988.85 Current Expectation: Higher.  The index should test 10,052.94 and then 11,136.87 on a closing basis.

AMEX BIOTECH, 'BTK':  closed @  187.52 Last Signal:  Called Higher on 12-10 @ 172.44 Current Expectation:  Higher.  The index should test 190.07 on a closing basis.  If this index closes above 190.07 then a "CUP PATTERN" will have been completed with a measured move to 275.63

AMEX PHARM., 'DRG':  closed @ 783.48 Last Signal:  Called Higher 12-24 @ 761.73 Current Expectation:  Higher. The index should test 823.86 on a closing basis.  Caution is advised with stocks within this index.

S&P HEALTHCARE, 'HCX':  closed @ 761.03 Last Signal:  Sell Signal on 1-6 @ 767.71   Current Expectation:  Lower.  The index should test 758.27 and then 723.95 on a closing basis.

M.S. CONSUMER, 'CMR':  closed @ 566.81 Last Signal:  Called higher on 12-22 @ 539.40  Current Expectation:  Higher.  The index should test 628.84 on a closing basis.

CBOE SOFTWARE, 'CWX':  closed @ 649.38 Last Signal:  Called Higher on 12-23 @ 601.46 Current Expectation:  Higher.  The index should test 691.77 on a closing basis.  Our Longer Term target level for this index is 902.05

AMEX INTER@CTIVE, 'IIX':  closed @ 720.13 Last Signal:  Called Higher on 11-18 @ 451.04   Current Expectation:  Higher.  This index has exceeded our upside target levels.  I am expecting it to continue to move higher.

CBOE INTERNET INDEX 'INX': closed @ 396.65   Last Signal:  Called Higher on 11-18 @ 285.17   Current Expectation:  Higher. This index has exceeded our upside target levels.  I am expecting it to continue to move higher.

M.S. HIGH TECH, 'MSH':  closed @ 953.86  Last Signal:  Called Higher on 1-5 @ 884.83   Current Expectation:  Higher. This index has exceeded our upside target levels.  I am expecting it to continue to move higher.

PHILY SEMICONDUCT, 'SOX':  closed @ 391.43 Last Signal:  Called Higher on 12-18 @ 339.98   Current Expectations: Higher.  A close above 391.62 will complete a "cup pattern" with a measured move to 584.40 a closing basis.

CBOE. TECH., 'TXX':  closed @ 471.39   Last Signal:  Called Higher on 1-5 @ 431.62   Current Expectation:  Higher. This index has exceeded our upside target levels.  I am expecting it to continue to move higher.

AMEX COMPUTER, 'XCI':  closed @ 864.37 Last Signal:  Called Higher on 10-12 @ 534.93  Upgraded with a Buy Signal on 10-13 @ 553.31   Current expectation:  Higher. This index has exceeded our upside target levels.  I am expecting it to continue to move higher.

M.S. CYCLICAL, 'CYC':  closed @ 513.06 Last Signal:  Called higher on 12-24 @ 467.94   Current expectation: Higher. The index should test 522.80 and then 531.07 on a closing basis.

CBOE GAMING, 'GAX':  closed @ 180.97 Last Signal:  Buy Signal on 12-23 @ 157.96 Current Expectation:  Higher.  The index should test 193.11  on a closing basis.

PHILY AIRLINE, 'PLN':  closed @ 689.69 Last Signal:  Buy Signal on 12-21 @ 676.61   Current Expectation:  Higher,  The index should test 694.62 and then 707.39 on a closing basis.  This index has a bad chart,  an accurate reading is not possible.  But I believe it will move higher.

AMEX AIRLINE, 'XAL':  closed @ 348.94 Last Signal:  Buy Signal on 12-21 @ 295.19 Current Expectation:  Higher,  The index should test 356.88 and then 373.62 on a closing basis.

S&P TRANSPORT, 'TRX':  closed @ 727.96 Last Signal:  Buy Signal on 12-21 @ 655.47 Current Expectation:  Higher.  The index should test 766.60 on a closing basis.  If the index closes above this level then it will have completed a "cup pattern" with a measured move to 993.00 on a closing basis.

PHILY PHONE, 'PNX':  closed @ 508.40 Last Signal:  Called Higher on 12-17 @ 446.34 Current Expectation:  Higher. This index has exceeded our upside target levels.  I am expecting it to continue to move higher.

AMEX N.A. TELECOM, 'XTC':  closed @ 961.34 Last Signal:  Called Higher on 11-19 @ 794.39 Current Expectation:  Higher. This index has exceeded our upside target levels.  I am expecting it to continue to move higher.

S&P RETAIL, 'RLX':  closed @  852.28 Last Signal:  Called Higher on 12-8 @ 782.79   Current Expectation:  Higher.  The Index should test 957.89 on a closing basis.  This index may be putting in a short term top.

S&P BANKING, 'BIX':  closed @ 700.34 Last Signal:  Called Higher on 1-7 @ 675.13 Current Expectation:  Higher .  The index should test 759.49 and then 784.89 on a closing basis.

PHILY BANKING, 'BKX':  closed @ 868.85 Last Signal:  Called Higher on 1-7 @ 841.88  Current Expectation:  Higher.  The index should test 898.65 and then 926.73 on a closing basis.

S&P INSURANCE, 'IUX':  closed @ 630.62 Last Signal:  Called Higher on 1-6 @ 606.19   Current Expectation:  Higher.  The index should test 675.92 and then 708.35 on a closing basis.

5 YR. BOND %, 'FVX':  closed @ 4.693%    Last Signal:  Called Higher on 1-5 @ 4.560%  Current Expectation:  Higher.  The index should test 4.678% and then 4.712% on a closing basis.

10 YR. BOND %, 'TNX':  closed @ 4.838% Last Signal:  Called Higher on 1-5 @ 4.689%  Current Expectation: Higher.  This index should test 4.846% and then 4.942% on a closing basis.

30 YR. BOND %, 'TYX':  closed @ 5.239% Last Signal:  Called higher on 1-5 @ 5.155% Current Expectation:  Higher.  This index should test 5.214%  and then 5.364% on a closing basis.

PHILY UTILITY, 'UTY':  closed @ 343.40 Last Signal:  Sell Signal on 12-28 @ 349.82  Current Expectation:  Lower.  The index should test 340.36 on a closing basis.

CBOE REIT, 'RIX':  closed @ 236.34 Last Signal:  Buy Signal on 1-4 @ 234.84    Current Expectation:  Higher.  The index should test 240.72 on a closing basis.  If this index is down again a "Sell Signal" could be generated.

PHILY GOLD/SILVER, 'XAU':  closed @ 72.95   Last Signal:  Called Higher on 12-31 @ 63.54   Current Expectation:  Higher.  The index should test 74.61 and then 81.38 on closing basis. 

AMEX BROKER/DEALER, 'XBD':  closed @ 656.23 Last Signal:  Called Higher on 1-5 @ 573.89 Current Expectation:  Higher.  The index should test 637.70 and then 938.36 on a closing basis.

M.S. Commodity Index 'CRX': closed @ 194.84 Last Signal:  Buy Signal on 12-24 @ 175.94   Current Expectations:  Higher.  The index should test 204.91 on a closing basis.

S&P CHEMICAL, 'CEX':  closed @ 444.73 Last Signal:  Called Higher on 12-28 @  425.99   Current Expectation:  Higher.  The index should test 453.67 and then 455.46 on a closing basis.

PHILY FOREST & PAPER, 'FPP':  closed @ 315.75 Last Signal:  Called higher on 12-22 @ 277.09   Current Expectation:  Higher.  The index should test 340.15 and then 353.36 on a closing basis.

AMEX NAT. GAS, 'XNG':  closed @ 232.79 Last Signal:  Called Higher on 12-24 @ 220.20   Current expectation:  Higher.  The index should test 234.86 and then 240.33 on a closing basis.  208.00 is the all time low on this index.

AMEX OIL, 'XOI':  closed @ 440.30 Last Signal: Called Higher on 11-2 @ 435.07 Current expectation:  Higher.  The index should test 450.07 and then 445.90 on a closing basis.  This index is primarily moving sideways,  but I believe it has an upward bias.

CBOE ENVIRO, 'EVX':  closed @ 164.14 Last signal:  Called Higher on 1-4 @ 160.56 Current Expectation: Higher.  The index should test 165.96 on a closing basis.