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PRIME
STOCK NEWSLETTER FOR AUGUST 16th, 2005 |
Position
Statement: In our Prime
Recommendation Letter we attempt to identify the
recommendation with the highest probability of
moving higher. We recommend that stop orders
be placed at the time of purchase, and once
the position has moved profitable we recommend
a stop be placed a minimum of $0.25 above the
purchase price and moved higher as the position
moves higher. |
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Today’s Comments: The overall
market finished Monday moderately higher in
a broad based move that saw the majority of
the sectors I track move higher. The strongest
sectors on the day were the Semiconductors,
Banking, Biotech, Consumer, High Tech, Retailers,
Broker/Dealers, Internet, Computers, Insurance,
Telecom, Interactive, Airlines, Chemicals, and
Cyclicals. There was weakness in the Natural
Gas, Oil & Gas, Gold/Silver, Commodities,
and Pharmaceuticals. Bonds moved lower on the
day sending interest rates higher. I have finished
my review of the individual stock charts from
Monday's trading activity; it appears that new
trends may be starting to form with banking
stocks looking to rally and new weakness starting
in the oil & gas related stocks. Also pharmaceuticals
continue to look weak. The Bottom Line:
The overall market continues to look weak and
should move lower.
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Sterling Calendar for
August 16th, 2005
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Date: |
Comments: |
8/16 |
American Eagle 'AEOS' reports
earnings before the open. est. $0.36 |
8/16 |
Deere & Co. 'DE' reports
earnings before the open. est. $1.89 |
8/16 |
Hewlett-Packard 'HPQ' reports
earnings. Time not supplied. est. $0.31 |
8/16 |
Home Deport 'HD' reports
earnings before the open. est. $0.79 |
8/16 |
JC Penny 'JCP' reports earnings
before the open. est. $0.40 |
8/16 |
Wal-Mart 'WMT' reports earnings
before the open. est. $0.65 |
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Recommendation:
Autodesk, Inc. 'ADSK' |
Company:
Autodesk, Inc. |
Symbol:
'ADSK' |
Closing
Price: $37.75 |
YH:
$39.90 YL: $18.02 |
EPS: $1.02 P/E: 37 |
Forecasted
EPS: $1.35 |
Shares
Outstanding: 228 Million |
Float: N/A |
Market
Cap.: $8.6 Billion |
Dividend:
$0.04 |
Yield: 0.10% |
Average
Daily Trading Volume: 2.5 Million |
Price
Targets: $38.57, $39.58, 45.90
and then $49.56
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Downside Stop: $36.58/share |
Options
Rec.: August 35 Calls @ $3.60/contract |
Options
Symbol: ADQIG |
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Company
Description: Autodesk, Inc. operates as a
software and digital content company worldwide.
The company provides business solutions through
technology products and services, including integrated
and interoperable design software, Internet services,
wireless development platforms, and point-of-location
applications. Its activities are segregated into
Design Solutions and Discreet Segments. Design
Solutions segment sells design products and services
for professionals and consumers who design, build,
manage, and own building projects or manufactures
goods, as well as the sale of mapping and geographic
information systems technology to public and private
users. The principal product portfolio of the
segment includes AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT products.
This segment also offers consulting, support,
and training services. Discreet segment develops,
integrates, markets, sells, and supports film
and television compositing systems; high definition
and standard definition broadcast editorial and
finishing systems; digital cinema production systems
for color grading and film finishing; and animation,
visualization, and streaming media products. This
segment primarily sells its products to post production
facilities, film studios, broadcasters, and creative
professionals for various applications, including
feature films, television programs, commercials,
music and corporate videos, interactive game production,
design visualization, Web design, and interactive
Web streaming. The company also offers a technology
platform designed to deliver location-based applications
to wired, mobile, and wireless users. Autodesk
markets its product, LocationLogic, primarily
to wireless carriers and network operators. The
company’s customers include companies in
the building, manufacturing, infrastructure, and
digital media sectors. Autodesk has a strategic
alliance with UGS PLM Solutions. The company was
founded in 1982 and is headquartered in San Rafael,
California. |
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Our
Analysis: The shares of Autodesk, Inc. moved
sharply higher on heavier than normal trading
volume yesterday. The shares of 'ADSK' should
continue to move higher and test $38.57/share,
an upside point of resistance established on December
28th of last year. If the shares of 'ADSK' close
above $38.57/share, then they will have completed
a long term "cup pattern" with a measured
move to our upper price target of $49.56/share.
However in the shorter term our next price target
would be $39.58/share, their yearly closing high.
If the shares of 'ADSK' close above $39.58/share,
then they will have completed a shorter term "cup
pattern" with a measured move to our intermediate
price target of $45.90/share. I see downside support
on the shares of 'ADSK' at $36.83/share, and have
set our downside stops at $36.58/share. |
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INDICES |
Dow
Jones Industrial Average (INDU):
Closed @ 10,634.8 Last Signal:
Called Lower on August 5th with the previous day's
close of 10,0610.10
Current Expectations: I am expecting the Dow
Jones Industrial Average to pullback over the
short term and move lower and test 10,546.32 If
the Dow closes below this level then it should
continue to move lower and test 10,432.51 |
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S&P
500 (SPX): Closed @ 1,233.87 Last
Signal: Called Lower on August 5th with the
previous day's close of 1,235.86 Current Expectation:
I am expecting the S&P 500 to to pullback
over the short term and test 1,225.31 and then
1,2166.96 if the support at 1,225.31 fails to
hold. |
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NASDAQ
100 (NDX): Closed @ 1,600.71 Last
Signal: Called Lower on August 5th with
the previous day's close of 1,608.74 Current
Expectations: I am expecting the NDX to pullback
over the short term and test 1,568.96 |
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CBOE
Ten Yr Treasury Index (TNX): Closed @
4.270% Last Signal: Called Lower
on August 15th with the previous day's close of
4.238% Current Expectations:
The TNX should move lower and test 4.196% and
then 4.177% on a closing basis. |
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Stocks
Looking Higher |
VOXX,
GRS, BLK, AAPL, SYK, VLO, CDI, VCI, BN, APCS,
HMN, TZIX, DST, GS, DCEL, SY, QSII, OI, SNDK,
ITWO, KFS, FLSH, LUFK, JTX, LNC, MEE, FISV, USM,
CNXS, TWX, C, QCOM, NVDA, BRCM, AMD, ADSK, PALM,
FRO |
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Stocks Looking Lower |
CSCO,
DAL, MOT, SYMC, FNM, GOOG, SEBL, JNJ, CHK, CFC,
HAL, RIG, FDO, JCP, FRE, SLB, KO, NVLS, CCL, MON,
BHI, BR, LLY, GSF |
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Yesterday's
Edition of the Prime Stock Newsletter |
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