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PRIME
STOCK NEWSLETTER FOR OCTOBER 13th, 2005 |
Position
Statement: In our Prime
Recommendation Letter we attempt to identify the
recommendation with the highest probability of
moving higher. We recommend that stop orders
be placed at the time of purchase, and once
the position has moved profitable we recommend
a stop be placed a minimum of $0.25 above the
purchase price and moved higher as the position
moves higher. |
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Today’s Comments: The overall
market finished Wednesday moderately lower in
a broad based move that saw almost every sector
index I track move lower. The weakest sectors
on the day were the Gold/Silver, Broker/Dealer,
Oil & Gas, Natural Gas, Biotech, Interactive,
Utilities, Commodities, Internet, Retailers,
Telecom, Technology, Cyclicals, High Tech, Computers,
Airlines, Banking, Semiconductors, Insurance,
and Consumer indices. There was strength in
the Healthcare and Chemical indices. The bond
market was lower on the day as interest rates
moved higher. The various sector indices continue
to be weak, and the number of stocks hitting
new 12 month highs was among the smallest I
can remember. Once again, the vast majority
of the heavy volume stocks continue to look
weak. However, many of the stocks I looked at
are starting to enter areas of support or are
starting look oversold. This could be an indication
that the recent decline in the market may come
to an end sometime in the near future; I just
don't think it will be today. The Bottom
Line: The overall market should move
lower.
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Sterling Calendar for
October 13th, 2005
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Date: |
Comments: |
Oct. 13 |
Fairchild Semiconductor
'FCS' reports earnings before the open. Est.
($0.01) |
Oct. 13 |
Tribune 'TRB' reports earnings
before the open. Est. $0.48 |
Oct. 13 |
Winnebago 'WGO' reports
earnings before the open. Est. $0.42 |
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Recommendation: Sell/Short
Caterpillar, Inc. 'CAT' |
Company:
Caterpillar, Inc. |
Symbol:
'CAT' |
Closing
Price: $54.74 |
Web
Site: http://www.cat.com |
YH:
$59.88 YL: $38.38 |
Forecasted
EPS: $4.83 |
Shares
Outstanding: 676 Million |
EPS:
$3.39 P/E: 16 |
Market
Cap.: $37 Billion |
Dividend:
$1.00 |
Yield:
1.8% |
Average
Daily Trading Volume: 4.4 Million
Shares |
Price
Targets: $53.78, and then $50.82 |
Upside Stop: $55.66/share |
Options
Rec.: October $55 Puts @ $1.65/contract |
Options
Symbol: CATVK |
Company
Description: Caterpillar, Inc. manufactures
construction and mining equipment; diesel
and natural gas engines; and industrial
gas turbines. It operates its business
in Machinery, Engines, and Financial Products
lines. Machinery line involves in the
design, manufacture, marketing, and sale
of construction, mining, and forestry
machinery, such as track and wheel tractors,
track and wheel loaders, pipelayers, motor
graders, wheel tractor-scrapers, track
and wheel excavators, backhoe loaders,
log skidders, log loaders, off-highway
trucks, articulated trucks, paving products,
telescopic handlers, skid steer loaders,
and related parts. It also offers logistics
services for other companies. Engines
line offers engines for the company’s
machinery; electric power generation systems;
on-highway vehicles and locomotives; marine,
petroleum, construction, industrial, agricultural,
and other applications; and related parts.
Financial Products line provides a range
of retail financing alternatives to customers
and dealers for Caterpillar machinery
and engines, solar gas turbines, as well
as other equipment and marine vessels.
The company also offers various forms
of insurance to customers and dealers
to help support the purchase and lease
of equipment, as well as invests in independent
power projects using Caterpillar power
generation equipment and services. It
markets its products through various distribution
centers and dealers in the United States
and worldwide. The company was formed
as Caterpillar Tractor Co. in 1925 and
changed its name to Caterpillar, Inc.
in 1986. Caterpillar, Inc. is headquartered
in Peoria, Illinois. |
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Our
Analysis: The shares of Caterpillar,
Inc. 'CAT' are a component of the Dow
Jones Industrial Average which I have
rated as moving lower from its current
levels. The shares of 'CAT' closed below
a key support level on heavier than normal
trading volume. The shares of 'CAT' should
continue to move lower and test $53.78/share,
the point from which they gapped higher
on the open of trading on August 31st
of this year. If the shares of 'CAT' close
below that level then they should continue
to move lower and test $50.82/share, the
point from which they gapped higher on
the open of trading on July 19th of this
year. I see upside resistance on the shares
of 'CAT' at $55.19/share, and have set
our stops accordingly at $55.66/share.
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INDICES |
Dow
Jones Industrial Average (INDU):
Closed @ 10,216.91 Last Signal:
Called lower on October 5th with the previous
day's close of 10,441.11
Current Expectations: I am expecting the Dow
Jones Industrial Average to move lower and test
10,140.12 on a closing basis. |
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S&P
500 (SPX): Closed @ 1,177.68 Last
Signal: Called lower on October 5th with the
previous day's close of 1,214.47
Current Expectation: I am expecting
the S&P 500 to move lower and test
1,173.80 and then 1,154.05 on a closing basis. |
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NASDAQ
100 (NDX): Closed @ 1,521.19 Last
Signal: Called lower on October 5th with
the previous day's close of 1,595.54
Current Expectations: I am
expecting the NDX move lower and test 1,490.53
on a closing basis. |
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CBOE
Ten Yr Treasury Index (TNX): Closed @
4.441% Last Signal: Called higher
after the close of trading on September 12th at
4.169% Current Expectations:
This index should continue to move higher and
test then 4.491% |
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Stocks
Looking Higher |
FAST, ADST, LSCO, MSSR, INGR, CSCO, MDT, HDI,
JCP
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Stocks Looking Lower |
AAPL,
INTC, MSFT, AMD, MOT, SNDK, QCOM, C, CVS, DIS,
AMGN, GOOG, JNPR, VLO, WM, AMX, AXP, BBY, GS,
MO, MWD, CFC, TOL, CCL, ADBE, UNH, COF, MRVL,
ABS, MER, LEH, RIG, AMT, OSIP, MMM, A, FD |
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Yesterday's
Edition of the Prime Stock Newsletter |
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