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PRIME
STOCK NEWSLETTER FOR OCTOBER 6th, 2005 |
Position
Statement: In our Prime
Recommendation Letter we attempt to identify the
recommendation with the highest probability of
moving higher. We recommend that stop orders
be placed at the time of purchase, and once
the position has moved profitable we recommend
a stop be placed a minimum of $0.25 above the
purchase price and moved higher as the position
moves higher. |
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Today’s Comments: The overall
market took a serious dump yesterday as somehow
the market seamed to wake up to the fact that
rising oil prices would eventually create inflation,
and that Fed wasn't done raising interest rates
yet. I thought the issue with oil prices was
so obvious I hadn't bothered to write it up
it in the Sterling Weekly. Once again I shouldn't
be surprised by the ability of people to overlook
the obvious. As far as short term interest rates
are concerned, I discussed my thoughts on those
in the August
15th edition of the Sterling Weekly. I would
like to point out that my target level is about
the same target level suggested by Steve Leisman
on CNBC today! Every sector of the market I
track went lower today, not sure I've ever seen
that before. The weakest sectors on the day
were the Biotech, Natural Gas, Oil & Gas,
Commodities, Utilities, Gold/Silver, Chemicals,
Cyclicals, Technology, Telecom, Semiconductors,
Healthcare Providers, Airlines, Retailers, and
Consumer indices. The only thing I saw moving
higher was the bond market as interest rates
went slightly lower. Having just completed my
review of the individual stocks from yesterday's
trading; it is safe to say they all looked weak.
The Bottom Line: The overall
market should move lower.
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Sterling Calendar for
October 6th, 2005
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Date |
Est.
Time |
Release |
For |
Briefing.com |
Consensus |
Prior |
10/06 |
8:30am |
|
10/01 |
435K |
400K |
356K |
Date: |
Comments: |
Oct 6th |
Accenture 'ACN' reports
earnings after the close. Est. 'ACN' |
Oct 6th |
ATI Technologies 'ATYT'
before the open. Est. ($0.30) |
Oct 6th |
Constellation Brands 'STZ'
reports earnings after the close. Est. $0.41 |
Oct 6th |
Costco Wholesale 'COST'
reports earnings at 11:00am est. Est. $0.64 |
Oct 6th |
International Speedway 'ISCA'
reports earnings. Time not supplied. Est.
$0.65 |
Oct 6th |
Net2Phone 'NTOP' reports
earnings after the close. Est. ($0.12) |
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Recommendation: Sell/Short
Amgen, Inc. 'AMGN'
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Company:
Amgen, Inc. |
Symbol:
'AMGN' |
Closing
Price: $78.01 |
Web
Site: http://www.amgen.com |
YH: $86.92 YL:
$52.00 |
Forecasted
EPS: $2.19 |
Shares
Outstanding: 1.23 Billion |
EPS: $4.26 P/E: 14 |
Market
Cap.: $96 Billion |
Dividend:
$0.00 |
Yield: N/A |
Average
Daily Trading Volume: 10 Million |
Price
Targets: $70.52, and then
$63.60 |
Upside Stop: $78.93/share |
Options
Rec.: October $75 Puts @ $1.10/contract |
Options
Symbol: YAA VO |
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Company
Description: Amgen, Inc., a biotechnology
company, engages in the discovery, development,
manufacture, and marketing of human therapeutics
based on advances in cellular and molecular biology.
The company markets human therapeutic products
in the areas of nephrology, supportive cancer
care, and inflammatory disease. Its products primarily
include EPOGEN, Aranesp, Neulasta, NEUPOGEN, and
ENBREL, which is marketed under a co-promotion
agreement with Wyeth in the United States and
Canada. EPOGEN and Aranesp stimulate the production
of red blood cells to treat anemia. Neulasta and
NEUPOGEN selectively stimulate the production
of neutrophils, a type of white blood cell that
helps the body fight infections. ENBREL blocks
the biologic activity of tumor necrosis factor
(TNF) by inhibiting TNF, a substance induced in
response to inflammatory and immunological responses,
such as rheumatoid arthritis and psoriasis. It
sells its products to healthcare providers, including
clinics, hospitals, and pharmacies primarily in
the United States, Europe, Canada, and Australia.
Amgen was established by Bill Bowes, Franklin
Johnson, Sam Wohlsteadter, and Raymond Baddour
in 1980. The company is headquartered in Thousand
Oaks, California. |
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Our Analysis: The shares of Amgen, Inc.
'AMGN' moved sharply lower on heavier than normal
trading volume yesterday and in the process
they closed below a key support level. This
is a very bearish trading signal. The shares
of 'AMGN' are also a component of the Amex Biotech
Index 'BTK' which also appears to be moving
lower from its current levels. This is another
negative for the shares of 'AMGN'. The shares
of 'AMGN' should continue to move lower and
test $70.52/share, the point from which they
gapped higher on the open of trading on July
20th of this year. If the shares of 'AMGN' close
below that level then I expect them to continue
to move lower and test $63.60/share, the point
from which they gapped higher on the open of
trading on July 7th of this year. I see upside
resistance on the shares of 'AMGN' at $78.68/share,
and have set my stops accordingly at $78.93/share.
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INDICES |
Dow
Jones Industrial Average (INDU):
Closed @ 10,317.36 Last Signal:
Called lower on October 5th with the previous
day's close of 10,441.11
Current Expectations: I am expecting the Dow
Jones Industrial Average to move lower and test
10,270.68 on a closing basis. |
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S&P
500 (SPX): Closed @ 1,196.39 Last
Signal: Called lower on October 5th with the
previous day's close of 1,214.47
Current Expectation: I am expecting
the S&P 500 to move lower and test 1,190.69
on a closing basis. |
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NASDAQ
100 (NDX): Closed @ 1,571.52 Last
Signal: Called lower on October 5th with
the previous day's close of 1,595.54
Current Expectations: I am
expecting the NDX move lower and test 1,561.84
and then 1,533.27 on a closing basis. |
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CBOE
Ten Yr Treasury Index (TNX): Closed @
4.361% Last Signal: Called higher
after the close of trading on September 12th at
4.169% Current Expectations:
This index should continue to move higher and
test then 4.419% |
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Stocks
Looking Higher |
CDMS,
PEP, ACE |
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Stocks Looking Lower |
MSFT,
CSCO, INTC, DELL, XOM, TXN, PFE, MOT, GE, CHK,
VLO, HPQ, GM, S, CVX, HAL, VZ, AMD, JPM, COP,
AA, FNM, WMB, AMGN, ECA, HD, HDI, SLB, JNPR, JNJ,
NEM, XTO, BR, DNA, TOL, NVDA, BBY, ERTS |
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Yesterday's
Edition of the Prime Stock Newsletter |
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Sterling Investment Services may hold positions
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